Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 109,371
2 South Dakota 97,777
3 Iowa 77,964
4 Wisconsin 76,156
5 Nebraska 73,037
6 Utah 67,885
7 Montana 64,233
8 Wyoming 63,903
9 Minnesota 63,162
10 Illinois 62,957
11 Idaho 62,914
12 Rhode Island 62,129
13 Kansas 60,889
14 Tennessee 58,473
15 Indiana 57,937
16 Arkansas 57,009
17 Mississippi 55,841
18 Missouri 55,763
19 Nevada 55,568
20 Alabama 55,520
21 Oklahoma 55,190
22 Louisiana 54,236
23 New Mexico 52,434
24 Alaska 51,056
25 Arizona 50,333
26 Florida 49,622
27 Texas 46,841
28 Kentucky 46,342
29 Colorado 46,279
30 Georgia 45,983
31 South Carolina 45,574
32 Michigan 43,625
33 New Jersey 42,040
34 Delaware 41,807
35 Ohio 41,431
36 North Carolina 38,119
37 Connecticut 38,101
38 Massachusetts 37,624
39 New York 36,904
40 Maryland 36,000
41 California 35,410
42 Pennsylvania 33,776
43 District of Columbia 33,041
44 West Virginia 31,318
45 Virginia 30,328
46 Puerto Rico 28,567
47 Washington 25,143
48 Oregon 20,343
49 New Hampshire 18,986
50 Hawaii 13,178
51 Maine 10,247
52 Vermont 8,141

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,158
2 Minnesota 1,015
3 Alaska 1,007
4 Indiana 988
5 Nevada 875
6 Utah 871
7 Nebraska 850
8 Oklahoma 801
9 New Mexico 796
10 South Dakota 792
11 Delaware 791
12 Colorado 784
13 Ohio 779
14 Connecticut 760
15 Tennessee 756
16 West Virginia 735
17 Pennsylvania 721
18 Wyoming 718
19 Idaho 688
20 Illinois 686
21 California 683
22 Kansas 672
23 Montana 672
24 Wisconsin 641
25 Missouri 640
26 Kentucky 636
27 Massachusetts 625
28 North Dakota 609
29 New Jersey 559
30 South Carolina 559
31 Alabama 545
32 Arkansas 541
33 Michigan 533
34 Mississippi 523
35 New Hampshire 521
36 Arizona 517
37 North Carolina 496
38 New York 476
39 Iowa 470
40 Maryland 448
41 Virginia 448
42 Florida 412
43 Texas 408
44 District of Columbia 396
45 Washington 381
46 Georgia 378
47 Louisiana 355
48 Oregon 344
49 Puerto Rico 315
50 Maine 230
51 Vermont 169
52 Hawaii 67

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,951
2 New York 1,780
3 Massachusetts 1,601
4 Connecticut 1,465
5 Louisiana 1,421
6 Rhode Island 1,366
7 North Dakota 1,348
8 Mississippi 1,330
9 South Dakota 1,254
10 Illinois 1,123
11 Michigan 1,042
12 District of Columbia 993
13 Arizona 954
14 Indiana 933
15 Georgia 900
16 Arkansas 898
17 Florida 897
18 Pennsylvania 892
19 South Carolina 889
20 Iowa 863
21 New Mexico 837
22 Delaware 814
23 Maryland 804
24 Texas 802
25 Alabama 793
26 Nevada 755
27 Missouri 725
28 Tennessee 725
29 Minnesota 720
30 Montana 695
31 Wisconsin 683
32 Nebraska 643
33 Kansas 637
34 Ohio 600
35 Colorado 599
36 Idaho 594
37 North Carolina 533
38 Kentucky 509
39 California 507
40 Virginia 492
41 Wyoming 483
42 Oklahoma 482
43 West Virginia 469
44 New Hampshire 416
45 Washington 404
46 Puerto Rico 376
47 Utah 296
48 Oregon 248
49 Alaska 190
50 Hawaii 183
51 Maine 168
52 Vermont 129

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 South Dakota 17
2 Arkansas 14
3 North Dakota 14
4 Wyoming 13
5 Illinois 11
6 Rhode Island 11
7 Michigan 10
8 Minnesota 9
9 Indiana 8
10 Kansas 8
11 Connecticut 7
12 Nebraska 7
13 New Mexico 7
14 West Virginia 7
15 Wisconsin 7
16 Iowa 6
17 Massachusetts 6
18 Pennsylvania 6
19 Tennessee 6
20 Mississippi 5
21 Nevada 5
22 South Carolina 5
23 Alabama 4
24 Colorado 4
25 Florida 4
26 Idaho 4
27 Kentucky 4
28 Louisiana 4
29 Maryland 4
30 Missouri 4
31 Montana 4
32 Ohio 4
33 Oklahoma 4
34 Texas 4
35 Delaware 3
36 District of Columbia 3
37 Georgia 3
38 New Hampshire 3
39 New Jersey 3
40 New York 3
41 Oregon 3
42 Puerto Rico 3
43 Arizona 2
44 California 2
45 North Carolina 2
46 Utah 2
47 Vermont 2
48 Alaska 1
49 Hawaii 1
50 Virginia 1
51 Maine 0
52 Washington 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 222,241 1 99
Norton Kansas 209,849 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 203,449 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 199,286 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 197,635 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 72,427 515 83
Richland South Carolina 52,069 1346 57
York South Carolina 39,160 2050 34
Orange California 28,699 2533 19
Pierce Washington 21,950 2771 11

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 5,952 3 99
Foster North Dakota 5,607 4 99
Gregory South Dakota 5,496 5 99
Richland South Carolina 743 1417 54
Davidson Tennessee 634 1667 46
York South Carolina 527 1895 39
Orange California 514 1928 38
Pierce Washington 370 2290 27

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons